Podhale Nowy Targ vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Podhale Nowy Targ and 1.20 for Rekord Bielsko-Biała, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Podhale Nowy Targ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Podhale Nowy Targ win

54.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Podhale Nowy Targ home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rekord Bielsko-Biała away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Podhale Nowy Targ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Podhale Nowy Targ and 1.20 for Rekord Bielsko-Biała, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Podhale Nowy Targ win55%

Draw22%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.0%
2–19.8%
1–08.4%
2–08.1%
3–16.4%

Recent form

Podhale Nowy Targ

2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 5-0 (W)

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Świt Skolwin · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Avia Świdnik · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa II · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

II Liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	13	10	2	1	15	32
2	Tychy 71	13	7	6	0	12	27
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	7	2	4	13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	6	4	3	-1	22
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	13	5	5	3	2	20
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	5	4	4	4	19
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	5	4	4	3	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	6	1	6	-2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	13	5	2	6	-4	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	5	1	7	3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	2	6	5	-11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	3	1	9	-6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	0	6	7	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Podhale Nowy Targ win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.