Sport Complex Podillia · Analysis updated 16:48 UTC
Podillya Khmelnytskyi vs Bratslav Vinnytsia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Podillya Khmelnytskyi and 2.00 for Bratslav Vinnytsia, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Bratslav Vinnytsia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bratslav Vinnytsia win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Podillya Khmelnytskyi home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bratslav Vinnytsia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bratslav Vinnytsia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 27% / 22% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Podillya Khmelnytskyi and 2.00 for Bratslav Vinnytsia, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–16.7%
- 0–26.7%
- 2–16.5%
Recent form
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilkhivtsi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nyva Ternopil II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruh Lviv · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Skala 1911 Stryi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Dnister Zalishchyky · 2-3 (L)
Bratslav Vinnytsia
- 2026-10-18T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Vilkhivtsi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruh Lviv · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Skala 1911 Stryi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dnister Zalishchyky · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Druha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 1 | Karbon Cherkasy | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Lozova | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | SC Poltava 2 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Vilkhivtsi | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 4 | Trostianets | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 5 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 6 | Atlet | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Nyva Ternopil II | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 7 | Rebel | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 8 | Oleksandria II | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Ruh Lviv | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Penuel | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bratslav Vinnytsia win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.