· Analysis updated 22:02 UTC
Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Star Starachowice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Podlasie Biała Podlaska and 1.37 for Star Starachowice, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Podlasie Biała Podlaska the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.7% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Podlasie Biała Podlaska home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Star Starachowice away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Podlasie Biała Podlaska to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Podlasie Biała Podlaska and 1.37 for Star Starachowice, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.0%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–06.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.62 (model 60.7% vs market 56.5%, edge +4.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | YesValue | 1.62 | 56.5% | 60.7% | 1.65 | +4.2 |
| Double chance | Home/AwayValue | 1.29 | 72.7% | 76.3% | 1.31 | +3.6 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 31.0% | 31.4% | 3.18 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 55.2% | 55.2% | 1.81 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 45.0% | 44.9% | 2.23 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.0% | 23.8% | 4.20 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.1% | 68.7% | 1.46 | -3.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.10 | 43.5% | 39.3% | 2.54 | -4.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Star Starachowice · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chełmianka Chełm · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 0-2 (L)
Star Starachowice
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisłoka Dębica · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokół Kolb. · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 34 |
| 2 | KSZO 1929 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 29 |
| 3 | Wisłoka Dębica | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Naprzód | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 24 |
| 5 | Czarni Połaniec | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| 6 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Hetman Zamosc | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Wisła Kraków II | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Jarosław | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 11 | Star Starachowice | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Sokół Kolb. | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 13 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Busko-Zdroj | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 |
| 16 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -11 | 9 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.