· Analysis updated 22:57 UTC
Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Wisła Kraków II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Podlasie Biała Podlaska and 1.35 for Wisła Kraków II, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Wisła Kraków II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Podlasie Biała Podlaska home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wisła Kraków II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wisła Kraków II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 35% / 26% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Podlasie Biała Podlaska and 1.35 for Wisła Kraków II, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Star Starachowice · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chełmianka Chełm · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 0-2 (L)
Wisła Kraków II
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarosław · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Busko-Zdroj · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Czarni Połaniec · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hetman Zamosc · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs KSZO 1929 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 34 |
| 2 | KSZO 1929 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 29 |
| 3 | Wisłoka Dębica | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Naprzód | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 24 |
| 5 | Czarni Połaniec | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| 6 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Hetman Zamosc | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Wisła Kraków II | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Jarosław | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 11 | Star Starachowice | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Sokół Kolb. | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 13 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Busko-Zdroj | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 |
| 16 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -11 | 9 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.