Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs ŁKS Łódź Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 1.30 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives ŁKS Łódź the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.08 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ŁKS Łódź away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ŁKS Łódź to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 31% / 28% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 1.30 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win31%

Draw28%

ŁKS Łódź win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.0%
0–112.1%
1–010.0%
0–09.3%
1–28.4%

Recent form

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 2-7 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Unia Skierniewice · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Poznań · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-01T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 1-3 (L)

ŁKS Łódź

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ruch Chorzów · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Arka Gdynia · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tychy 71 · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2-0 ŁKS Łódź (I Liga)
2026-05-07T16:00:00.000Z · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2-3 ŁKS Łódź (I Liga)
2025-09-29T15:00:00.000Z · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3-0 ŁKS Łódź (I Liga)

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	6	3	2	10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	12	6	3	3	5	21
3	Nieciecza	12	6	2	4	2	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	12	6	1	5	3	19
5	Miedz Legnica	12	5	3	4	7	18
6	Warta Poznań	11	6	0	5	4	18
7	Ruch Chorzów	11	5	3	3	3	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	5	3	3	3	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	4	6	2	0	18
10	Stal Rzeszów	11	5	2	4	-5	17
11	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	0	14
12	Chrobry Głogów	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Stal Mielec	12	3	4	5	-11	13
14	Pogoń Siedlce	11	3	3	5	-2	12
15	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	-4	12
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	12	4	0	8	-4	12
17	Podbeskidzie	11	1	8	2	-2	11
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	3	2	7	-7	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.