Stadion Miejski · Analysis updated 02:39 UTC
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.48 expected goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 0.85 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win
72.9% probability
Expected goals
2.48 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stal Mielec away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 16% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.48 goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 0.85 for Stal Mielec, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.1%
- 1–08.9%
- 3–17.7%
Recent form
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Chrobry Głogów · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź · 2-0 (W)
Stal Mielec
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Poznań · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Ruch Chorzów | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 3 | Polonia Warszawa | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 4 | Nieciecza | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Lechia Gdansk | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 6 | Miedz Legnica | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Warta Poznań | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | ŁKS Łódź | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Polonia Bytom | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 | Stal Rzeszów | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 17 |
| 11 | Pogoń Siedlce | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 | Arka Gdynia | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 13 | Podbeskidzie | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Chrobry Głogów | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 15 | Stal Mielec | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 | Odra Opole | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 18 | Unia Skierniewice | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win, at 72.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.