Pogoń Siedlce vs Arka Gdynia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Pogoń Siedlce and 0.93 for Arka Gdynia, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Pogoń Siedlce the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

71.7% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pogoń Siedlce home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arka Gdynia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pogoń Siedlce to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 29% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Pogoń Siedlce and 0.93 for Arka Gdynia, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Pogoń Siedlce win42%

Draw29%

Arka Gdynia win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–014.3%
1–113.3%
0–011.9%
0–111.0%
2–08.6%

Recent form

Pogoń Siedlce

2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Bytom · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jastrzębie · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)

Arka Gdynia

2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Siedlce · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Warta Poznań · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T17:05:00.000Z · A vs Resovia Rzeszów · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2025-04-26T17:30:00.000Z · Pogoń Siedlce 1-1 Arka Gdynia (I Liga)
2024-10-20T12:30:00.000Z · Pogoń Siedlce 1-2 Arka Gdynia (I Liga)

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	6	3	1	11	21
2	Warta Poznań	11	6	0	5	4	18
3	Ruch Chorzów	11	5	3	3	3	18
4	Polonia Warszawa	10	5	2	3	4	17
5	Nieciecza	10	5	2	3	2	17
6	Lechia Gdansk	10	5	1	4	3	16
7	ŁKS Łódź	10	4	3	3	2	15
8	Miedz Legnica	10	4	2	4	4	14
9	Stal Rzeszów	10	4	2	4	-6	14
10	Chrobry Głogów	10	3	3	4	-1	12
11	Pogoń Siedlce	10	3	3	4	-1	12
12	Polonia Bytom	10	2	6	2	-2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	-4	12
14	Stal Mielec	10	3	3	4	-8	12
15	Podbeskidzie	10	1	8	1	-1	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	3	2	5	-1	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	3	2	6	-6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	10	3	0	7	-3	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.