Pogoń Siedlce vs Arka Gdynia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Pogoń Siedlce and 0.68 for Arka Gdynia, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Pogoń Siedlce the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Pogoń Siedlce win

53.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 0.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pogoń Siedlce home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arka Gdynia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pogoń Siedlce to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 28% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Pogoń Siedlce and 0.68 for Arka Gdynia, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Pogoń Siedlce win54%

Draw28%

Arka Gdynia win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–017.7%
0–012.9%
2–012.2%
1–111.9%
0–18.7%

Recent form

Pogoń Siedlce

2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Odra Opole · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Rzeszów · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Arka Gdynia · 2-1 (W)

Arka Gdynia

2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Goteborg · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Siedlce · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2025-04-26T17:30:00.000Z · Pogoń Siedlce 1-1 Arka Gdynia (I Liga)
2024-10-20T12:30:00.000Z · Pogoń Siedlce 1-2 Arka Gdynia (I Liga)

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	12	6	3	3	8	21
2	Ruch Chorzów	12	6	3	3	5	21
3	Polonia Warszawa	12	6	3	3	5	21
4	Nieciecza	12	6	2	4	2	20
5	Lechia Gdansk	12	6	1	5	3	19
6	Miedz Legnica	12	5	3	4	7	18
7	Warta Poznań	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	5	3	3	3	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	4	6	2	0	18
10	Stal Rzeszów	12	5	2	5	-6	17
11	Pogoń Siedlce	12	4	3	5	-1	15
12	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	0	14
13	Podbeskidzie	12	2	8	2	-1	14
14	Chrobry Głogów	12	3	4	5	-2	13
15	Stal Mielec	12	3	4	5	-11	13
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	12	4	0	8	-4	12
17	Odra Opole	12	3	3	6	-5	12
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	3	2	7	-7	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Pogoń Siedlce win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.