Pogoń Siedlce vs ŁKS Łódź Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Pogoń Siedlce and 1.13 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives ŁKS Łódź the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.12 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pogoń Siedlce home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ŁKS Łódź away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Pogoń Siedlce win36%

Draw29%

ŁKS Łódź win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.3%
0–111.9%
1–011.8%
0–010.5%
1–27.5%

Recent form

Pogoń Siedlce

2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Odra Opole · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Rzeszów · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Arka Gdynia · 2-1 (W)

ŁKS Łódź

2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Podbeskidzie · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ruch Chorzów · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Arka Gdynia · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-25T13:30:00.000Z · Pogoń Siedlce 1-1 ŁKS Łódź (I Liga)
2026-05-02T17:30:00.000Z · Pogoń Siedlce 0-4 ŁKS Łódź (I Liga)
2025-10-25T17:30:00.000Z · Pogoń Siedlce 3-1 ŁKS Łódź (I Liga)
2025-04-06T15:00:00.000Z · Pogoń Siedlce 1-1 ŁKS Łódź (I Liga)
2024-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · Pogoń Siedlce 0-2 ŁKS Łódź (I Liga)
2023-01-18T00:00:00.000Z · Pogoń Siedlce 3-1 ŁKS Łódź (Friendlies Clubs)

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	12	6	3	3	8	21
2	Ruch Chorzów	12	6	3	3	5	21
3	Polonia Warszawa	12	6	3	3	5	21
4	Nieciecza	12	6	2	4	2	20
5	Lechia Gdansk	12	6	1	5	3	19
6	Miedz Legnica	12	5	3	4	7	18
7	Warta Poznań	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	5	3	3	3	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	4	6	2	0	18
10	Stal Rzeszów	12	5	2	5	-6	17
11	Pogoń Siedlce	12	4	3	5	-1	15
12	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	0	14
13	Podbeskidzie	12	2	8	2	-1	14
14	Chrobry Głogów	12	3	4	5	-2	13
15	Stal Mielec	12	3	4	5	-11	13
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	12	4	0	8	-4	12
17	Odra Opole	12	3	3	6	-5	12
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	3	2	7	-7	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.