Pogoń Siedlce vs Polonia Warszawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Pogoń Siedlce and 1.40 for Polonia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Polonia Warszawa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pogoń Siedlce home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Polonia Warszawa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Polonia Warszawa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Pogoń Siedlce and 1.40 for Polonia Warszawa, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Pogoń Siedlce win34%

Draw26%

Polonia Warszawa win41%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.4%
0–19.9%
1–08.9%
1–28.6%
2–17.7%

Recent form

Pogoń Siedlce

2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Odra Opole · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Rzeszów · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Arka Gdynia · 2-1 (W)

Polonia Warszawa

2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Chrobry Głogów · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Stal Rzeszów · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Polkowice · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	6	3	2	10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	12	6	3	3	5	21
3	Nieciecza	12	6	2	4	2	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	12	6	1	5	3	19
5	Miedz Legnica	12	5	3	4	7	18
6	Warta Poznań	11	6	0	5	4	18
7	Ruch Chorzów	11	5	3	3	3	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	5	3	3	3	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	4	6	2	0	18
10	Stal Rzeszów	11	5	2	4	-5	17
11	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	0	14
12	Chrobry Głogów	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Stal Mielec	12	3	4	5	-11	13
14	Pogoń Siedlce	11	3	3	5	-2	12
15	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	-4	12
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	12	4	0	8	-4	12
17	Podbeskidzie	11	1	8	2	-2	11
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	3	2	7	-7	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.