Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Pogoń Siedlce and 0.92 for Ruch Chorzów, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Pogoń Siedlce the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pogoń Siedlce home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ruch Chorzów away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pogoń Siedlce to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 31% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Pogoń Siedlce and 0.92 for Ruch Chorzów, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Pogoń Siedlce win38%

Draw31%

Ruch Chorzów win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–014.6%
0–013.9%
1–113.5%
0–112.8%
2–07.6%

Recent form

Pogoń Siedlce

2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Bytom · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jastrzębie · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)

Ruch Chorzów

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs ŁKS Łódź · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Bytom · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Podbeskidzie · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Unia Skierniewice · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	11	6	3	2	10	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	12	6	3	3	5	21
3	Nieciecza	12	6	2	4	2	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	12	6	1	5	3	19
5	Miedz Legnica	12	5	3	4	7	18
6	Warta Poznań	11	6	0	5	4	18
7	Ruch Chorzów	11	5	3	3	3	18
8	ŁKS Łódź	11	5	3	3	3	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	4	6	2	0	18
10	Stal Rzeszów	11	5	2	4	-5	17
11	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	0	14
12	Chrobry Głogów	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Stal Mielec	12	3	4	5	-11	13
14	Pogoń Siedlce	11	3	3	5	-2	12
15	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	-4	12
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	12	4	0	8	-4	12
17	Podbeskidzie	11	1	8	2	-2	11
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	3	2	7	-7	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.