Stadion ROSRRiT · Referee M. Kuropatwa · Analysis updated 01:32 UTC
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Pogoń Siedlce and 1.06 for Stal Rzeszów, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Pogoń Siedlce the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pogoń Siedlce home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stal Rzeszów away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pogoń Siedlce to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 29% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Pogoń Siedlce and 1.06 for Stal Rzeszów, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–111.2%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–17.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 54.5% vs market 42.1%, edge +12.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.1% | 54.5% | 1.83 | +12.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 66.8% | 67.6% | 1.48 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 38.6% | 38.9% | 2.57 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.6% | 28.7% | 3.48 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.53 | 61.2% | 61.1% | 1.64 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.70 | 32.8% | 32.4% | 3.09 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.0% | 71.3% | 1.40 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 57.9% | 45.5% | 2.20 | -12.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Pogoń Siedlce
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Odra Opole · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Rzeszów · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Arka Gdynia · 2-1 (W)
Stal Rzeszów
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Karviná · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Miedz Legnica · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Odra Opole · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Podbeskidzie · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Ruch Chorzów | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 3 | Polonia Warszawa | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 4 | Nieciecza | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Lechia Gdansk | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 6 | Miedz Legnica | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Warta Poznań | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | ŁKS Łódź | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Polonia Bytom | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 | Stal Rzeszów | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 17 |
| 11 | Pogoń Siedlce | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 | Arka Gdynia | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 13 | Podbeskidzie | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Chrobry Głogów | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 15 | Stal Mielec | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 | Odra Opole | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 18 | Unia Skierniewice | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.