Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Busko-Zdroj Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów and 1.50 for Busko-Zdroj, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Busko-Zdroj away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów and 1.50 for Busko-Zdroj, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win43%

Draw23%

Busko-Zdroj win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–18.9%
1–27.7%
1–06.9%
2–26.7%

Recent form

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Wisłoka Dębica · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokół Kolb. · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jarosław · 2-5 (L)

Busko-Zdroj

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hetman Zamosc · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KSZO 1929 · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Kraków II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Naprzód · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Moravia Morawica · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chełmianka Chełm	13	9	4	0	14	31
2	KSZO 1929	13	7	5	1	14	26
3	Wisłoka Dębica	14	8	2	4	5	26
4	Czarni Połaniec	14	7	3	4	2	24
5	Naprzód	13	7	2	4	3	23
6	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	6	3	5	6	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	3	20
8	Wisła Kraków II	14	5	4	5	-1	19
9	Jarosław	13	5	2	6	4	17
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	0	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Sokół Kolb.	13	3	7	3	0	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	-3	15
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	-3	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	-12	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	-10	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	2	2	9	-14	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.