· Analysis updated 00:44 UTC
Pogon Szczecin W vs Stomilanki Olsztyn W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin W and 0.95 for Stomilanki Olsztyn W, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Pogon Szczecin W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pogon Szczecin W win
71.5% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pogon Szczecin W home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stomilanki Olsztyn W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–08.3%
- 3–17.9%
- 1–07.8%
Recent form
Pogon Szczecin W
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademia Piłkarska LG W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Slask Wroclaw W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UJ Krakow W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Łęczna W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Legia W · 2-1 (W)
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
- 2026-05-30T09:30:00.000Z · A vs UJ Krakow W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Pogon Tczew W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-10T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biala W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs GKS Katowice W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademia Piłkarska LG W · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T11:00:00.000Z · Pogon Szczecin W 7-2 Stomilanki Olsztyn W (Ekstraliga Women)
- 2025-08-31T09:45:00.000Z · Pogon Szczecin W 3-1 Stomilanki Olsztyn W (Ekstraliga Women)
- 2025-03-15T11:00:00.000Z · Pogon Szczecin W 1-0 Stomilanki Olsztyn W (Ekstraliga Women)
- 2024-10-23T10:00:00.000Z · Pogon Szczecin W 2-1 Stomilanki Olsztyn W (Ekstraliga Women)
- 2024-04-21T11:00:00.000Z · Pogon Szczecin W 4-0 Stomilanki Olsztyn W (Ekstraliga Women)
- 2023-09-30T10:00:00.000Z · Pogon Szczecin W 4-0 Stomilanki Olsztyn W (Ekstraliga Women)
Ekstraliga Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GKS Katowice W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 19 |
| 2 | Górnik Łęczna W | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin W | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Czarni Sosnowiec W | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 14 |
| 5 | Akademia Piłkarska LG W | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Legia W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 7 | UJ Krakow W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 8 | Sleza Wroclaw W | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 9 | Rekord Bielsko-Biala W | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Lech Poznan W | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 11 | UKS Łódź W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 12 | Slask Wroclaw W | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pogon Szczecin W win, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.