Elbasan Arena · Analysis updated 12:53 UTC
Pogradeci vs Besa Kavajë Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Pogradeci and 1.45 for Besa Kavajë, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Besa Kavajë the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pogradeci home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Besa Kavajë away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Pogradeci
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamurtari · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Kukesi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kastrioti Krujë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Besa Kavajë · 1-1 (D)
Besa Kavajë
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Devolli · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besëlidhja Lezhë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oriku · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sopoti Librazhd · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 1-1 Besa Kavajë (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 1-0 Besa Kavajë (Superliga)
- 2026-03-14T14:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 3-2 Besa Kavajë (1st Division)
- 2026-01-17T12:30:00.000Z · Pogradeci 0-0 Besa Kavajë (1st Division)
- 2025-10-19T12:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 1-1 Besa Kavajë (1st Division)
- 2025-04-28T15:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 1-0 Besa Kavajë (1st Division)
- 2025-03-15T13:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 0-1 Besa Kavajë (1st Division)
- 2024-12-02T12:30:00.000Z · Pogradeci 0-0 Besa Kavajë (1st Division)
- 2024-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 0-2 Besa Kavajë (1st Division)
- 2022-01-29T12:30:00.000Z · Pogradeci 3-0 Besa Kavajë (1st Division)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Laci | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 6 | Skenderbeu Korce | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | AF Elbasani | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Vora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Partizani | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.