· Analysis updated 11:12 UTC
Pogradeci vs Kastrioti Krujë Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Pogradeci and 0.82 for Kastrioti Krujë, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Pogradeci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pogradeci win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
1.77 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pogradeci home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kastrioti Krujë away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.3%
- 2–011.7%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.5%
Recent form
Pogradeci
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamurtari · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Kukesi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kastrioti Krujë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Besa Kavajë · 1-1 (D)
Kastrioti Krujë
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sopoti Librazhd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamurtari · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pogradeci · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Burreli · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pogradeci · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 2-1 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2026-05-07T14:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 3-0 Kastrioti Krujë (Superliga)
- 2026-04-04T13:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 5-1 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2026-01-24T12:30:00.000Z · Pogradeci 4-2 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2025-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 4-0 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2025-02-23T12:30:00.000Z · Pogradeci 0-0 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2024-11-09T13:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 0-2 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2024-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 3-1 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2012-02-12T13:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 1-1 Kastrioti Krujë (Superliga)
- 2011-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 0-4 Kastrioti Krujë (Superliga)
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Pogradeci | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Flamurtari | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | FK Kukesi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Bylis | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Kastrioti Krujë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Sopoti Librazhd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Burreli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Oriku | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pogradeci win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.