Gjorgji Kycyku Stadium · Analysis updated 06:30 UTC
Pogradeci vs Kastrioti Krujë Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Pogradeci and 1.03 for Kastrioti Krujë, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Pogradeci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pogradeci win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pogradeci home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kastrioti Krujë away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.6%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Pogradeci
- 2026-10-23T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bylis · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Sopoti Librazhd · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Korabi Peshkopi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Delvina · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamurtari · 0-0 (D)
Kastrioti Krujë
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besëlidhja Lezhë · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Oriku · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Luzi 2008 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sopoti Librazhd · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 2-1 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2026-05-07T14:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 3-0 Kastrioti Krujë (Superliga)
- 2026-04-04T13:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 5-1 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2026-01-24T12:30:00.000Z · Pogradeci 4-2 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2025-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 4-0 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2025-02-23T12:30:00.000Z · Pogradeci 0-0 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2024-11-09T13:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 0-2 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2024-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 3-1 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2012-02-12T13:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 1-1 Kastrioti Krujë (Superliga)
- 2011-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Pogradeci 0-4 Kastrioti Krujë (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Tirana | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Laci | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 6 | Skenderbeu Korce | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | AF Elbasani | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Vora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Partizani | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pogradeci win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.