· Analysis updated 06:09 UTC
Pogradeci vs Skenderbeu Korce Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Pogradeci and 0.72 for Skenderbeu Korce, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Pogradeci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pogradeci win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pogradeci home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Skenderbeu Korce away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pogradeci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 26% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Pogradeci and 0.72 for Skenderbeu Korce, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.4%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–011.0%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Pogradeci
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamurtari · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Kukesi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kastrioti Krujë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Besa Kavajë · 1-1 (D)
Skenderbeu Korce
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tirana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tirana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogradeci | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Besa Kavajë | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| 3 | Korabi Peshkopi | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Bylis | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | FK Kukesi | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Kastrioti Krujë | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Burreli | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Sopoti Librazhd | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 10 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 11 | Flamurtari | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Oriku | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pogradeci win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.