Pohang Steelers vs Johor Darul Takzim FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.65 for Johor Darul Takzim FC, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Johor Darul Takzim FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Johor Darul Takzim FC win

49.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.11 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pohang Steelers home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Johor Darul Takzim FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 26% / 25% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.65 for Johor Darul Takzim FC, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Pohang Steelers win26%

Draw25%

Johor Darul Takzim FC win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.6%
0–110.5%
1–29.6%
0–28.6%
1–07.0%

Recent form

Pohang Steelers

2026-10-09T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Incheon United · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Seoul · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-15T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Beijing Guoan · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Daejeon Citizen · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 0-0 (D)

Johor Darul Takzim FC

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

AFC Champions League Elite table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Ain	2	2	0	0	7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Neftchi	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Al-Nassr	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Pakhtakor	2	0	2	0	0	2
10	Al Shamal	2	0	2	0	0	2
11	Al-Ittihad FC	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Tractor Sazi	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Al-Gharafa	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	Al-Wasl FC	2	0	0	2	-3	0
15	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	0	0	2	-4	0
16	Al Sadd	2	0	0	2	-5	0
1	Kashima	2	2	0	0	7	6
2	Gamba Osaka	2	2	0	0	5	6
3	Vissel Kobe	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Beijing Guoan	2	2	0	0	3	6
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Johor Darul Takzim FC	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Daejeon Citizen	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Kashiwa Reysol	2	1	0	1	3	3
9	Kyoto Sanga	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	Jeonbuk Motors	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Buriram United	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Ratchaburi	2	0	0	2	-3	0
13	Công An Nhân Dân	2	0	0	2	-4	0
14	Pohang Steelers	2	0	0	2	-4	0
15	Port FC	2	0	0	2	-5	0
16	Newcastle Jets	2	0	0	2	-8	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Johor Darul Takzim FC win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.