· Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
Poland U20 W vs Mexico U20 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Poland U20 W and 1.06 for Mexico U20 W, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Poland U20 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Poland U20 W win
59.5% probability
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Poland U20 W home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mexico U20 W away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Poland U20 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 21% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Poland U20 W and 1.06 for Mexico U20 W, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–09.4%
- 1–09.3%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Poland U20 W
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Colombia U20 W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Benin U20 W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mexico U20 W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentina U20 W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Nigeria U20 W · 0-1 (L)
Mexico U20 W
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentina U20 W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Poland U20 W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Benin U20 W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghana U20 W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Poland U20 W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Poland U20 W win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.