National Stadium Warsaw · Referee Anastasios Papapetrou, Greece · Analysis updated 08:59 UTC
Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Poland and 1.14 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Poland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Poland home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bosnia & Herzegovina away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Poland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Poland and 1.14 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
Poland
- 2026-10-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bosnia & Herzegovina · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Romania · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sweden · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bosnia & Herzegovina · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nigeria · 2-2 (D)
Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 2026-09-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Romania · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Poland · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-02T00:00:00.000Z · A vs USA · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Qatar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Switzerland · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Slovenia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | FYR Macedonia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Hungary | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Georgia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 1 | Austria | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 3 | Rep. Of Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | Israel | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 1 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 1 | Albania | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Belarus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
| 1 | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 1 | Slovakia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Moldova | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 |
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 1 | Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Andorra | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.