Stadium Polanka nad Odrou · Analysis updated 15:05 UTC
Polanka nad Odrou vs Frýdek-Místek Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Polanka nad Odrou and 1.70 for Frýdek-Místek, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Frýdek-Místek the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Frýdek-Místek win
61.4% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Polanka nad Odrou home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Frýdek-Místek away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Frýdek-Místek to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 15% / 24% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Polanka nad Odrou and 1.70 for Frýdek-Místek, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.4%
- 0–213.1%
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.83 (model 58.9% vs market 50.3%, edge +8.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.83 | 50.3% | 58.9% | 1.70 | +8.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.50 | 37.7% | 38.5% | 2.60 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 6.00 | 14.8% | 15.0% | 6.67 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 23.4% | 23.5% | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.11 | 85.0% | 84.9% | 1.18 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.44 | 61.8% | 61.4% | 1.63 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.3% | 76.4% | 1.31 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 49.7% | 41.1% | 2.43 | -8.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Polanka nad Odrou
- 2026-10-18T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Havířov · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Uherský Brod · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Uničov · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Frýdek-Místek · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Unie Hlubina · 1-1 (D)
Frýdek-Místek
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vrchovina · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Polanka nad Odrou · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Havířov · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uherský Brod · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Uničov · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · Polanka nad Odrou 1-0 Frýdek-Místek (3. liga - MSFL)
- 2026-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · Polanka nad Odrou 0-1 Frýdek-Místek (3. liga - MSFL)
- 2025-10-08T13:30:00.000Z · Polanka nad Odrou 2-0 Frýdek-Místek (3. liga - MSFL)
3. liga - MSFL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Líšeň II | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 29 |
| 2 | Uničov | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 29 |
| 3 | Zbrojovka Brno II | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Frýdek-Místek | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | Hranice | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Sigma Olomouc II | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Slovácko II | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Unie Hlubina | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Uherský Brod | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 | Hodonín | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 17 |
| 11 | Vítkovice | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 12 | Zlín II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 13 | Karviná II | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 14 |
| 14 | Vrchovina | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 14 |
| 15 | Havířov | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 11 |
| 16 | Blansko | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 11 |
| 17 | Vsetín | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -16 | 10 |
| 18 | Polanka nad Odrou | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Frýdek-Místek win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.