Polessya vs Kryvbas KR Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Polessya and 1.18 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Polessya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Polessya win

54.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.93 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Polessya home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kryvbas KR away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Polessya win55%

Draw22%

Kryvbas KR win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–19.8%
1–08.7%
2–08.3%
3–16.3%

Recent form

Polessya

2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kryvbas KR · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Livyi Bereh · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kudrivka · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kudrivka · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 2-0 (W)

Kryvbas KR

2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Polessya · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpiya Savyntsi · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Chornomorets · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-14T16:00:00.000Z · Polessya 2-0 Kryvbas KR (Premier League)
2025-09-14T10:00:00.000Z · Polessya 1-0 Kryvbas KR (Premier League)
2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · Polessya 1-1 Kryvbas KR (Premier League)
2024-11-30T13:30:00.000Z · Polessya 1-3 Kryvbas KR (Premier League)
2024-10-30T13:30:00.000Z · Polessya 2-1 Kryvbas KR (Cup)
2024-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · Polessya 1-0 Kryvbas KR (Premier League)
2023-11-06T13:00:00.000Z · Polessya 1-1 Kryvbas KR (Premier League)
2021-10-23T12:30:00.000Z · Polessya 1-2 Hirnyk (Persha Liga)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	8	7	0	1	14	21
2	Polessya	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Dynamo Kyiv	7	5	1	1	5	16
4	FC Kharkiv	7	5	0	2	9	15
5	Karpaty	8	4	2	2	9	14
6	Zorya Luhansk	8	3	2	3	-2	11
7	LNZ Cherkasy	8	3	2	3	-2	11
8	Veres Rivne	8	2	3	3	-3	9
9	Kolos Kovalivka	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Bukovyna	8	1	5	2	-2	8
11	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	8	2	2	4	-3	8
12	Livyi Bereh	7	1	4	2	-1	7
13	Chornomorets	7	1	2	4	-5	5
14	Kryvbas KR	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Obolon'-Brovar	7	0	4	3	-10	4
16	Kudrivka	8	0	2	6	-14	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Polessya win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.