Tsentralnyi Stadion · Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
Polessya vs Veres Rivne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Polessya and 0.58 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Polessya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Polessya win
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Polessya home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Veres Rivne away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Polessya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 22% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Polessya and 0.58 for Veres Rivne, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.1%
- 2–015.0%
- 1–19.8%
- 0–09.8%
- 3–08.7%
Recent form
Polessya
- 2026-10-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Kyiv · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bukovyna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Kharkiv · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kryvbas KR · 1-0 (W)
Veres Rivne
- 2026-10-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Obolon'-Brovar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kudrivka · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Karpaty · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polessya | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Kolos Kovalivka | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Veres Rivne | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 11 | Livyi Bereh | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Bukovyna | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -11 | 7 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Kryvbas KR | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Polessya win, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.