Boonyachinda Stadium · Analysis updated 04:56 UTC
Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.40 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Police Tero home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Police Tero
- 2026-10-21T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Surin · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kasetsart FC · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kanchanaburi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Khon Kaen United · 0-2 (L)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
- 2026-10-25T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Esan Pattaya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Phrae United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Muang Loei United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Police Tero · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chainat · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2023-05-07T11:30:00.000Z · Police Tero 3-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 1)
- 2022-11-27T12:00:00.000Z · Police Tero 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 1)
- 2022-05-18T11:00:00.000Z · Police Tero 1-2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (FA Cup)
- 2022-01-16T11:00:00.000Z · Police Tero 0-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 1)
- 2021-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · Police Tero 0-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 1)
- 2021-03-21T11:30:00.000Z · Police Tero 0-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 1)
- 2020-12-19T11:30:00.000Z · Police Tero 0-4 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 1)
- 2018-06-22T13:00:00.000Z · Police Tero 0-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 1)
- 2018-03-03T10:45:00.000Z · Police Tero 0-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 1)
- 2017-06-18T11:00:00.000Z · Police Tero 3-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 1)
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Uttaradit | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Satun | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Kanchanaburi | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Chainat | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Chiangmai United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Phrae United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Chanthaburi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Police Tero | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Nakhon Pathom | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Muang Loei United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Muangthong United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Songkhla | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Mahasarakham United | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.