· Analysis updated 03:54 UTC
Police vs Al Hilal Omdurman Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.59 expected goals for Police and 1.05 for Al Hilal Omdurman, a combined total of 1.64. That distribution gives Al Hilal Omdurman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Hilal Omdurman win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
0.59 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Police home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Hilal Omdurman away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Hilal Omdurman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 21% / 34% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.59 goals for Police and 1.05 for Al Hilal Omdurman, a combined 1.64 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–120.4%
- 0–019.5%
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–210.6%
Recent form
Police
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Musanze · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorilla · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunrise · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mukura · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gicumbi · 1-2 (L)
Al Hilal Omdurman
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sidama Bunna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Kigali · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aigle Noir · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aigle Noir · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jamus · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T16:30:00.000Z · Police 1-1 Al Hilal Omdurman (National Soccer League)
- 2025-11-26T16:00:00.000Z · Police 0-0 Al Hilal Omdurman (National Soccer League)
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gorilla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 2 | Mukura | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Gicumbi | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Marines | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Amagaju | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Sunrise | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 7 |
| 7 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Musanze | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Gasogi United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Police | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Hilal Omdurman win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.