· Analysis updated 14:08 UTC
Police vs Al Hilal Omdurman Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.64 expected goals for Police and 0.91 for Al Hilal Omdurman, a combined total of 1.55. That distribution gives Al Hilal Omdurman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
75.4% probability
Expected goals
0.64 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Police home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Hilal Omdurman away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Hilal Omdurman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 25% / 36% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.64 goals for Police and 0.91 for Al Hilal Omdurman, a combined 1.55 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.3%
- 0–119.3%
- 1–013.7%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–28.7%
Recent form
Police
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunrise · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mukura · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gicumbi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gasogi United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kiyovu Sports · 0-0 (D)
Al Hilal Omdurman
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Kigali · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aigle Noir · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aigle Noir · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jamus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs GOR Mahia · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Marines | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Amagaju | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Mukura | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Gorilla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Sunrise | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Police | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Gasogi United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 75.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.