· Analysis updated 18:21 UTC
Police vs Eagles Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Police and 2.00 for Eagles, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Police the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.3% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Police home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eagles away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Police to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 21% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Police and 2.00 for Eagles, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.3%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–34.9%
Recent form
Police
- 2026-04-06T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Phoenix · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-28T00:00:00.000Z · A vs San Juan Jabloteh · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-22T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Central · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-03-15T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Defence Force · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 0-1 (L)
Eagles
- 2026-07-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs North Leeward · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Police · 1-6 (L)
- 2025-07-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs All Saints United · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-07-26T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Bays · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-11-30T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · Police 6-1 Eagles (CONCACAF Caribbean Club Shield)
CONCACAF Caribbean Club Shield table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Metropolitan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | Robin Hood | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Slingerz | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Delfines Del Este | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Inter Willemstad | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Helenites | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Elite | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | St. John's | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | La Clery FL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | North Leeward | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Britannia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | All Saints United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Baltimore | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Weymouth Wales | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Prison Service | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Roaring Lions | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Dublanc | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 19 | Eagles | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | VG United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 21 | St. Pauls United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 22 | SWA Sharks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.