Kigali Pelé Stadium · Analysis updated 12:23 UTC
Police vs Etoile de l'Est Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Police and 0.98 for Etoile de l'Est, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Police the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Police home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Police to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 30% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Police and 0.98 for Etoile de l'Est, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–112.2%
- 2–07.6%
Recent form
Police
- 2026-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorilla · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunrise · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mukura · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gicumbi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gasogi United · 1-0 (W)
Etoile de l'Est
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mukura · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gicumbi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Kigali · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amagaju · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-05-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bugesera · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gorilla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 2 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Marines | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Amagaju | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Mukura | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Sunrise | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Gasogi United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Police | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.