· Analysis updated 22:31 UTC
Police vs Kaédi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Police and 0.33 for Kaédi, a combined total of 1.32. That distribution gives Police the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 15% for over 2.5 goals and 18% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Police win
51.6% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 0.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kaédi away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Police to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 36% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Police and 0.33 for Kaédi, a combined 1.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 15% and both teams to score at 18%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–026.8%
- 1–026.5%
- 2–013.1%
- 0–18.8%
- 1–18.7%
Recent form
Police
Kaédi
- 2026-05-23T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Nouakchott King's · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-20T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Police · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AC Douane · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-04T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Ksar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tevragh-Zeïne · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N'Zidane | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Police | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Pompiers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Gendrim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Armée | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | SNIM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Chemal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Nouadhibou | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Nouakchott Academie | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Tevragh-Zeïne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Nouakchott King's | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | Kaédi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Kédia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | AC Douane | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Police win, at 51.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 18% and over 2.5 goals at 15%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.