Police XI vs Morupule Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Police XI and 0.48 for Morupule Wanderers, a combined total of 1.38. That distribution gives Police XI the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 23% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

81.2% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.90 – 0.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Police XI home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Police XI to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 37% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Police XI and 0.48 for Morupule Wanderers, a combined 1.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 16% and both teams to score at 23%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%.

Match result (1X2)

Police XI win44%

Draw37%

Morupule Wanderers win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

63%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals40%

Over 2.5 goals16%

Over 3.5 goals5%

Both teams to score23%

Correct score

0–025.1%
1–022.6%
0–112.1%
1–110.9%
2–010.2%

Recent form

Police XI

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Orapa United · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Matebele · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Morupule Wanderers · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Morupule Wanderers · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Orapa United · 0-0 (D)

Morupule Wanderers

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prisons XI · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gaborone United · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Township Rollers · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sua Flamingoes · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Police XI · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gaborone United	5	5	0	0	8	15
2	Tonota	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Sua Flamingoes	6	3	2	1	2	11
4	Galaxy	5	3	1	1	2	10
5	Centre Chiefs	7	3	1	3	0	10
6	Orapa United	7	2	3	2	1	9
7	Extension Gunners	6	2	3	1	-1	9
8	TAFIC	5	2	2	1	2	8
9	Police XI	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Nico United	6	2	0	4	-2	6
11	Township Rollers	5	1	2	2	0	5
12	Enesia	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Matebele	6	1	1	4	-3	4
14	BDF XI	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Prisons XI	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Morupule Wanderers	5	0	3	2	-4	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 81.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 23% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.

A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.