Polissya II vs UCSA Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Polissya II and 1.66 for UCSA, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Polissya II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.66

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Polissya II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UCSA away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Polissya II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 23% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Polissya II and 1.66 for UCSA, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Polissya II win41%

Draw23%

UCSA win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.5%
2–18.5%
1–27.8%
2–27.0%
1–05.7%

Recent form

Polissya II

2026-09-28T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Yarud Mariupol' · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T10:45:00.000Z · H vs Prykarpattia · 1-2 (L)

UCSA

2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Prykarpattia · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Chernihiv · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Metal Kharkiv · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Persha Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	12	7	3	2	7	24
2	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	7	2	3	5	23
3	SK Poltava	12	6	3	3	12	21
4	Kulykiv	12	6	3	3	11	21
5	Yarud Mariupol'	12	6	3	3	5	21
6	Oleksandria	12	5	5	2	6	20
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	12	4	5	3	2	17
8	Nyva Ternopil	12	3	6	3	2	15
9	Metal Kharkiv	12	4	3	5	-1	15
10	Prykarpattia	12	4	3	5	-2	15
11	Inhulets	11	4	2	5	-5	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	12	4	1	7	-8	13
13	UCSA	12	2	5	5	-4	11
14	Chernihiv	11	2	4	5	-4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	12	2	3	7	-18	9
16	Polissya II	12	1	5	6	-8	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.