Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu · Analysis updated 00:25 UTC
Politehnica Iasi vs Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Politehnica Iasi and 0.84 for Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Politehnica Iasi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Politehnica Iasi win
61.5% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Politehnica Iasi home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Politehnica Iasi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Politehnica Iasi and 0.84 for Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 2–011.7%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.2%
Recent form
Politehnica Iasi
- 2026-05-09T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Slatina · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Bistriţa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-25T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Muscelul Câmpulung Elite · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Metalul Buzău · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-10T08:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA Targu Mures · 0-1 (L)
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Adjud · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aerostar Bacau · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bacău II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Odorheiu Secuiesc · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs USV Iaşi · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga II table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Slatina | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Chindia Targoviste | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Popești-Leordeni | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 24 |
| 5 | Cetatea Suceava | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 6 | Metalul Buzău | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | CSM Reşiţa | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Concordia | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 9 | FC Bacau | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 18 |
| 10 | Bihor Oradea | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 11 | Gloria Bistriţa | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 18 |
| 12 | CS Afumati | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Metaloglobus | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | ASA Targu Mures | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 9 |
| 18 | Unirea Slobozia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | CS Dinamo București | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -16 | 7 |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 11 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 21 | Ştefăneşti | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -19 | 6 |
| 22 | Dumbrăviţa | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Politehnica Iasi win, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.