Complexul Sportiv al Tineretului UTM · Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Politehnica UTM vs CSF Bălți Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Politehnica UTM and 1.08 for CSF Bălți, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Politehnica UTM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Politehnica UTM win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Politehnica UTM home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CSF Bălți away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Politehnica UTM
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dacia-Buiucani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sireți · 0-0 (D)
CSF Bălți
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Politehnica UTM · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sireți · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dacia-Buiucani · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Milsami Orhei · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · Politehnica UTM 6-0 CSF Bălți (Super Liga)
- 2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · Politehnica UTM 0-3 CSF Bălți (Super Liga)
- 2025-11-22T11:00:00.000Z · Politehnica UTM 3-1 CSF Bălți (Super Liga)
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Politehnica UTM 2-3 CSF Bălți (Super Liga)
- 2025-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · Politehnica UTM 0-1 CSF Bălți (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 37 |
| 2 | Petrocub | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 29 |
| 3 | Zimbru | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 5 | Politehnica UTM | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 | Milsami Orhei | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Sireți | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -39 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Politehnica UTM win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.