Complexul Sportiv al Tineretului UTM · Analysis updated 08:07 UTC
Politehnica UTM vs Sireți Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Politehnica UTM and 0.87 for Sireți, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Politehnica UTM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Politehnica UTM win
58.2% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Politehnica UTM home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sireți away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Politehnica UTM to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 23% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Politehnica UTM and 0.87 for Sireți, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 2–011.1%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Politehnica UTM
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dacia-Buiucani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sireți · 0-0 (D)
Sireți
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSF Bălți · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Milsami Orhei · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrocub · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 34 |
| 2 | Zimbru | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | Petrocub | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 21 |
| 5 | Politehnica UTM | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Milsami Orhei | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -4 | 19 |
| 7 | Sireți | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -39 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Politehnica UTM win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.