Complexul Sportiv al Tineretului UTM · Analysis updated 11:59 UTC
Politehnica UTM vs Zimbru Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Politehnica UTM and 1.28 for Zimbru, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Politehnica UTM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Politehnica UTM win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Politehnica UTM home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zimbru away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Politehnica UTM to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Politehnica UTM and 1.28 for Zimbru, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–27.0%
Recent form
Politehnica UTM
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dacia-Buiucani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sireți · 0-0 (D)
Zimbru
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukovyna · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dacia-Buiucani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Politehnica UTM · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sireți · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 37 |
| 2 | Petrocub | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 29 |
| 3 | Zimbru | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 5 | Politehnica UTM | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 | Milsami Orhei | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Sireți | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -39 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Politehnica UTM win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.