Boisko ul. Pilkarska 8 · Referee D. Krumplewski · Analysis updated 11:49 UTC
Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Polonia Bytom and 1.10 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Polonia Bytom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Polonia Bytom win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Polonia Bytom home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.38 (model 48.9% vs market 38.7%, edge +10.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.38 | 38.7% | 48.9% | 2.04 | +10.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.4% | 54.9% | 1.82 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.0% | 26.2% | 3.82 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 28.6% | 28.7% | 3.48 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 45.4% | 45.1% | 2.22 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 71.9% | 71.3% | 1.40 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 73.8% | 1.36 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 61.3% | 51.1% | 1.96 | -10.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Polonia Bytom
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Chrobry Głogów · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ruch Chorzów · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew II · 2-1 (W)
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Unia Skierniewice · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Poznań · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T13:30:00.000Z · Polonia Bytom 2-2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (I Liga)
- 2026-02-28T18:30:00.000Z · Polonia Bytom 1-2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (I Liga)
- 2025-08-20T16:00:00.000Z · Polonia Bytom 3-0 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (I Liga)
- 2024-11-16T11:15:00.000Z · Polonia Bytom 0-1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (II Liga - East)
- 2024-07-20T10:00:00.000Z · Polonia Bytom 0-2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (II Liga - East)
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 3 | Nieciecza | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Miedz Legnica | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Warta Poznań | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Ruch Chorzów | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | ŁKS Łódź | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Polonia Bytom | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 | Stal Rzeszów | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 17 |
| 11 | Arka Gdynia | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Chrobry Głogów | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Stal Mielec | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| 14 | Pogoń Siedlce | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Odra Opole | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 | Podbeskidzie | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 18 | Unia Skierniewice | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Polonia Bytom win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.