Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Siedlce Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Polonia Bytom and 1.75 for Pogoń Siedlce, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Polonia Bytom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Polonia Bytom home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pogoń Siedlce away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Polonia Bytom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 21% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Polonia Bytom and 1.75 for Pogoń Siedlce, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Polonia Bytom win44%

Draw21%

Pogoń Siedlce win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–18.2%
2–18.2%
1–27.2%
2–27.2%
3–15.5%

Recent form

Polonia Bytom

2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Chrobry Głogów · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ruch Chorzów · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew II · 2-1 (W)

Pogoń Siedlce

2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Bytom · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jastrzębie · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	6	3	1	11	21
2	Warta Poznań	11	6	0	5	4	18
3	Ruch Chorzów	11	5	3	3	3	18
4	Polonia Warszawa	10	5	2	3	4	17
5	Nieciecza	10	5	2	3	2	17
6	Lechia Gdansk	10	5	1	4	3	16
7	ŁKS Łódź	10	4	3	3	2	15
8	Miedz Legnica	10	4	2	4	4	14
9	Stal Rzeszów	10	4	2	4	-6	14
10	Chrobry Głogów	10	3	3	4	-1	12
11	Pogoń Siedlce	10	3	3	4	-1	12
12	Polonia Bytom	10	2	6	2	-2	12
13	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	-4	12
14	Stal Mielec	10	3	3	4	-8	12
15	Podbeskidzie	10	1	8	1	-1	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	3	2	5	-1	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	3	2	6	-6	11
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	10	3	0	7	-3	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.