· Analysis updated 20:11 UTC
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Polonia Lidzbark Warm. and 2.16 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki, a combined total of 4.16. That distribution gives Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.0% probability
Expected goals
2.01 – 2.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 37% / 20% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.01 goals for Polonia Lidzbark Warm. and 2.16 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki, a combined 4.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–16.7%
- 2–35.2%
Recent form
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pelikan Łowicz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Sieradz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigry Suwałki · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew II · 1-4 (L)
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Warta Sieradz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wigry Suwałki · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Zambrów · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Wigry Suwałki | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 31 |
| 3 | Swit | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 26 |
| 4 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | Pelikan Łowicz | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Wisła Płock II | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 7 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Warta Sieradz | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 9 | Olimpia Zambrów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 10 | Olimpia Elbląg | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 | Jagiellonia II | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Widzew II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 14 | ŁKS Łódź II | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 | Mławianka Mława | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -15 | 11 |
| 18 | Łomża | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.