· Analysis updated 08:27 UTC
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. vs Olimpia Elbląg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Polonia Lidzbark Warm. and 1.18 for Olimpia Elbląg, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Polonia Lidzbark Warm. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Olimpia Elbląg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Polonia Lidzbark Warm. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Polonia Lidzbark Warm. and 1.18 for Olimpia Elbląg, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mławianka Mława · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Łomża · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Weszlo · 1-1 (D)
Olimpia Elbląg
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jagiellonia II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs ŁKS Łódź II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mławianka Mława · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Łomża · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.