· Analysis updated 04:58 UTC
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. vs Swit Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Polonia Lidzbark Warm. and 1.90 for Swit, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Swit the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.
Model pick
Swit to Win
53.4% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–28.1%
- 2–16.2%
Why the model likes this
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Swit to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 24% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Polonia Lidzbark Warm. and 1.90 for Swit, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Recent form
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Elbląg · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Swit · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Elbląg · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Unia Skierniewice · 2-0 (W)
Swit
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Pelikan Łowicz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Swit | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Wigry Suwałki | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Wisła Płock II | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Olimpia Elbląg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Jagiellonia II | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Widzew II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Warta Sieradz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Olimpia Zambrów | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Mławianka Mława | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | ŁKS Łódź II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Łomża | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 18 | Troszyn | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.