Polonia Środa vs Gedania Gdansk Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Polonia Środa and 1.43 for Gedania Gdansk, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Polonia Środa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Polonia Środa win

59.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.43 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Polonia Środa home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gedania Gdansk away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Polonia Środa win60%

Draw19%

Gedania Gdansk win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

2–18.9%
1–17.4%
3–17.2%
2–26.4%
2–06.3%

Recent form

Polonia Środa

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalisz · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznań II · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kluczevia Stargard · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wda Świecie · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Elana Toruń · 2-2 (D)

Gedania Gdansk

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lipno Stęszew · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Stargard Szczeciński · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemik Bydgoszcz · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Września · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bałtyk Koszalin · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · Polonia Środa 4-3 Gedania Gdansk (III Liga - Group 2)
2025-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Polonia Środa 0-4 Gedania Gdansk (III Liga - Group 2)
2024-10-12T10:00:00.000Z · Polonia Środa 2-3 Gedania Gdansk (III Liga - Group 2)
2023-11-25T11:00:00.000Z · Polonia Środa 2-1 Gedania Gdansk (III Liga - Group 2)
2023-08-05T10:00:00.000Z · Polonia Środa 3-2 Gedania Gdansk (III Liga - Group 2)
2023-06-09T16:00:00.000Z · Polonia Środa 4-2 Gedania Gdansk (III Liga - Group 2)
2022-11-12T11:00:00.000Z · Polonia Środa 3-1 Gedania Gdansk (III Liga - Group 2)

III Liga - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Polonia Środa	14	10	4	0	20	34
2	Luzino	14	9	1	4	18	28
3	Wda Świecie	14	8	3	3	4	27
4	Kluczevia Stargard	13	7	2	4	2	23
5	Stargard Szczeciński	14	6	4	4	9	22
6	Lech Poznań II	13	6	3	4	2	21
7	Noteć Czarnków	14	6	2	6	1	20
8	Bałtyk Koszalin	14	5	4	5	2	19
9	Elana Toruń	14	5	4	5	-2	19
10	Unia Swarzędz	14	5	3	6	3	18
11	Gedania Gdansk	14	4	6	4	1	18
12	Kalisz	14	4	6	4	-2	18
13	Grom Nowy Staw	14	5	1	8	-1	16
14	Flota Świnoujście	14	4	3	7	-7	15
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	14	2	6	6	-9	12
16	Victoria Września	14	2	6	6	-12	12
17	Lipno Stęszew	14	3	2	9	-11	11
18	Kotwica Kórnik	14	3	2	9	-18	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Polonia Środa win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.