· Analysis updated 02:27 UTC
Polonia Warszawa U19 vs Jagiellonia U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Polonia Warszawa U19 and 1.75 for Jagiellonia U19, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Polonia Warszawa U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Polonia Warszawa U19 win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Polonia Warszawa U19 home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Jagiellonia U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Polonia Warszawa U19
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Arka Gdynia U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Raków Częstochowa U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Śląsk Wrocław U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Kraków U19 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa U19 · 3-2 (W)
Jagiellonia U19
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Zabrze U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Talent Warszawa U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Miedź Legnica U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Escola Varsovia U19 · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T10:00:00.000Z · Polonia Warszawa U19 2-1 Jagiellonia U19 (Central Youth League)
- 2025-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · Polonia Warszawa U19 0-4 Jagiellonia U19 (Central Youth League)
- 2025-05-18T10:00:00.000Z · Polonia Warszawa U19 2-0 Jagiellonia U19 (Central Youth League)
- 2024-11-03T11:00:00.000Z · Polonia Warszawa U19 3-1 Jagiellonia U19 (Central Youth League)
- 2024-04-27T10:00:00.000Z · Polonia Warszawa U19 1-2 Jagiellonia U19 (Central Youth League)
- 2023-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · Polonia Warszawa U19 2-1 Jagiellonia U19 (Central Youth League)
- 2023-04-15T10:00:00.000Z · Polonia Warszawa U19 1-2 Jagiellonia U19 (Central Youth League)
Central Youth League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa U19 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Miedź Legnica U19 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Śląsk Wrocław U19 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 4 | Wisła Kraków U19 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Górnik Zabrze U19 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Zagłębie Lubin U19 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia U19 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Arkonia U19 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Raków Częstochowa U19 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Lech Poznań U19 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Talent Warszawa U19 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 15 |
| 12 | Polonia Warszawa U19 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| 13 | Stal Rzeszów U19 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce U19 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Arka Gdynia U19 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 16 | Escola Varsovia U19 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Polonia Warszawa U19 win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.