Stadion Polonii · Analysis updated 21:37 UTC
Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Polonia Warszawa and 1.18 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Polonia Warszawa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Polonia Warszawa win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Polonia Warszawa home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Korona Kielce away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Polonia Warszawa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Polonia Warszawa and 1.18 for Korona Kielce, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Polonia Warszawa
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Chrobry Głogów · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Stal Rzeszów · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Polkowice · 1-0 (W)
Korona Kielce
- 2026-10-24T12:45:00.000Z · H vs GKS Katowice · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogon Szczecin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Raków Częstochowa · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Polonia Warszawa win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.