Stadio Pasquale Novi · Analysis updated 20:16 UTC
Pompei vs Heraclea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Pompei and 1.10 for Heraclea, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Heraclea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.8% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pompei home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Heraclea away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heraclea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 27% / 31% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Pompei and 1.10 for Heraclea, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.0%
- 0–014.6%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.0%
- 0–28.8%
Recent form
Pompei
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarnese · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fidelis Andria · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Virtus Francavilla · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Acerrana · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Heraclea · 2-1 (W)
Heraclea
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nola 1925 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferrandina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Martina Franca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Barletta · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pompei · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martina Franca | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Turris | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Virtus Francavilla | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Bisceglie | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Brindisi | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Manfredonia | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Gravina | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 8 | Nocerina | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Real Normanna | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | USD Palmese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Fidelis Andria | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Gladiator | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Ebolitana | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | Melfi | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Real Forio 2014 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Ischia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Francavilla | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Nardò | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.