· Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Ponte da Barca vs Vila Meã Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Ponte da Barca and 1.40 for Vila Meã, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Vila Meã the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vila Meã win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ponte da Barca home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vila Meã away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vila Meã to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 22% / 27% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Ponte da Barca and 1.40 for Vila Meã, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.0%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–010.7%
- 0–210.5%
- 1–08.9%
Recent form
Ponte da Barca
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rebordosa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amarante · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bragança · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Os Limianos · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Montalegre · 0-0 (D)
Vila Meã
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vinhais · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rebordosa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maia Lidador · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Os Limianos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ponte da Barca · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chaves II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | SC Braga B | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Limianos | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Bragança | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Tirsense | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Montalegre | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Vila Meã | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Celoricense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Rebordosa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Ponte da Barca | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | Maria da Fonte | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 12 | Brito | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | Maia Lidador | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 14 | Vinhais | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vila Meã win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.