· Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
Ponte Preta U20 vs Sertãozinho U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Ponte Preta U20 and 1.55 for Sertãozinho U20, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Sertãozinho U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sertãozinho U20 win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ponte Preta U20 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sertãozinho U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sertãozinho U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 22% / 26% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Ponte Preta U20 and 1.55 for Sertãozinho U20, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.4%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Ponte Preta U20
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Portuguesa U20 · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Itapirense U20 · 1-1 (D)
Sertãozinho U20
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Santo André U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Santo André U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferroviária U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ponte Preta U20 · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sertãozinho U20 win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.