Moisés Lucarelli · Referee Edina Alves Batista, Brazil · Analysis updated 09:05 UTC
Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.72 expected goals for Ponte Preta and 2.21 for São Bernardo, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives São Bernardo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
São Bernardo win
71.4% probability
Expected goals
0.72 – 2.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ponte Preta home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
São Bernardo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates São Bernardo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 11% / 18% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.72 goals for Ponte Preta and 2.21 for São Bernardo, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.0%
- 0–111.8%
- 0–39.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.5%
Recent form
Ponte Preta
- 2026-10-16T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Goianiense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Novorizontino · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-07T00:35:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cuiaba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP · 0-2 (L)
São Bernardo
- 2026-09-25T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Novorizontino · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Goianiense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T22:30:00.000Z · A vs America Mineiro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Londrina · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Ponte Preta · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 32 | 64 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 62 |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 61 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 35 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 59 |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 55 |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | -1 | 51 |
| 10 | Goias | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 49 |
| 11 | São Bernardo | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 49 |
| 12 | Botafogo SP | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 47 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 47 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 35 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 44 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 43 |
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -5 | 43 |
| 17 | Avai | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | -12 | 37 |
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -7 | 32 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | -32 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 35 | 3 | 6 | 26 | -55 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is São Bernardo win, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.