· Analysis updated 02:04 UTC
Pontevedra II vs Celta de Vigo III Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Pontevedra II and 1.07 for Celta de Vigo III, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives Pontevedra II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pontevedra II win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pontevedra II home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Celta de Vigo III away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pontevedra II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.94 goals for Pontevedra II and 1.07 for Celta de Vigo III, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Pontevedra II
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Portonovo SD · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Barco · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arenteiro · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Somozas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta de Vigo III · 1-2 (L)
Celta de Vigo III
- 2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Celtiga · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Coruña · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Arteixo · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarriana · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Antela · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Sarriana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Lalin | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Antela | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Estradense | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Atlético Arteixo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Barco | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Villalbés | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Portonovo SD | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Alondras | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Silva | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Pontevedra II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | Celtiga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 14 | Coruña | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Somozas | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Arenteiro | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Celta de Vigo III | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 18 | Viveiro | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pontevedra II win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.