· Analysis updated 16:12 UTC
Pontevedra vs Cacereño Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Pontevedra and 1.15 for Cacereño, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Cacereño the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pontevedra home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cacereño away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cacereño to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 34% / 29% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Pontevedra and 1.15 for Cacereño, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–010.8%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Pontevedra
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mérida AD · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Ferrol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Ponferradina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club II · 1-3 (L)
Cacereño
- 2026-10-04T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Mérida AD · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Ourense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Arenas Getxo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-14T13:00:00.000Z · Pontevedra 0-1 Cacereño (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · Pontevedra 1-1 Cacereño (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Athletic Club II | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cacereño | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Zamora | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ponferradina | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Real Unión | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Extremadura 1924 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Real Avilés | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Pontevedra | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Barakaldo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.